# Tavily Search Results: Dusty

**Query:** extreme weather events US and worldwide  
**Topic:** news  
**Results:** 5  
**Date:** 2026-05-22 12:06:58

---

## 1. Trump cuts to weather data could make forecasts less reliable, warn experts - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts)  
**Score:** 0.4423

### Summary

Those impediments are coming as the US is preparing for more extreme weather. A “super El Niño” is expected to spike temperatures, smash heat records nationwide and may boost hurricane activity in some regions.

Noaa will issue its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

## ‘A climate that no longer exists’

For decades, scientists used traditional physics-based models to predict future weather conditions, using complex mathematical equations to simulate the dynamics at work in the atmosphere. New AI-based models instead identify patterns in decades of historical data to forecast weather outcomes. [...] “You have infrastructure systems in this country that are built on having a steady or static climate, and we know that that’s not the case as extremes are increasing,” he said.

Like stormwater systems that were not designed to keep up with climate-fueled heavy rainfall events or roads that were not designed to withstand climate-fueled extreme heat, “the AI weather models were trained on a climate that no longer exists”, Gloninger said.

This problem already has real world implications, said Gloninger, noting that conventional models outperformed AI-based ones when forecasting a historic February 2026 blizzard in the north-eastern US. [...] That new technology uses less computing power than traditional models – which must run thousands of mathematical equations to work – and has been found to outperform traditional models for some aspects of weather forecasting. But it also seems to have major shortcomings, experts have found.

Crucially, when it comes to predicting extreme weather events, new models still “underperform”, according to an April study published in Science Advances. Because their forecasts are based on past weather events, the authors found, they seem to have trouble simulating the record-breaking weather events that are becoming increasingly common amid the climate crisis, instead tending to predict weather more similar to historical events.

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# Trump cuts to weather data could make forecasts less reliable, warn experts

Use of AI is a valuable tool for weather prediction but only when it’s trained with ample data, experts say

As the US prepares for hurricane season and a summer of record-breaking heat, experts fear the Trump administration’s cuts to climate and weather data programming could make the federal government’s weather forecasts less reliable when they are needed most.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) [late last year launched](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models) a suite of artificial intelligence-powered global weather forecast models which it said would improve “speed, efficiency, and accuracy”. In March, an [agency official said](https://www.wsj.com/articles/noaa-official-says-ai-will-overhaul-future-of-weather-forecasting-76baca60) those models are being trained with centuries of weather data.

Artificial intelligence is a valuable tool for weather prediction, but only when it is well-trained with ample data, said Monica Medina, who served as Noaa’s principal deputy undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere from 2009 to 2012.

Under Trump, climate and weather data collection has declined, said Medina. This year, the Trump administration proposed a modest budget increase for the National Weather Service, but a 40% cut to Noaa overall.

“We absolutely need AI to help us crunch the data faster and to make sense of more and more data that we can collect,” said Medina, who under Joe Biden also served as assistant secretary of state for oceans. “But right now, what we’re doing is cutting back the data collection … we’re going in the wrong direction.”

In an emailed comment, Erica Grow Cei, a National Weather Service spokesperson said: “Despite the misinformation circulating about missing weather and climate data, there is, in fact, a wealth of weather data collected each day, from satellites in space, to a network of weather balloons, to buoys in the ocean, and land-based sensors.”

But widespread reports show staffing cuts have forced Noaa’s National Weather Service to scale back [satellites](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/28/noaa-cuts-hurricane-forecasting-climate) and [balloon launches](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/27/alaska-storm-emergency-response-trump-cuts), key parts of the country’s data collection system. And shrunk climate programs threaten ocean buoy networks and [other observation systems](https://en.ara.cat/environment/trump-wants-to-liquidate-climate-research-by-dismantling-agencies-that-study-phenomena-like-nino_130_5734283.html), experts say. Research into effects of the climate crisis on Earth’s systems is also being [slashed](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/28/noaa-cuts-hurricane-forecasting-climate), along with funding for researchers who analyze data and identify new sources.

“Weather times time equals climate,” said Craig McLean, Noaa’s former acting chief scientist and head of Noaa Research. “Cutting climate research impacts the skill of our weather forecast, and it arrests our advancement of weather forecasts.”

Those impediments are coming as the US is preparing for more extreme weather. A “super El Niño” is expected to spike temperatures, smash heat records nationwide and may boost hurricane activity in some regions.

Noaa will issue its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

## ‘A climate that no longer exists’

For decades, scientists used traditional physics-based models to predict future weather conditions, using complex mathematical equations to simulate the dynamics at work in the atmosphere. New AI-based models instead identify patterns in decades of historical data to forecast weather outcomes.

That new technology uses less computing power than traditional models – which must run thousands of mathematical equations to work – and has been found to outperform traditional models for some aspects of weather forecasting. But it also seems to have major shortcomings, experts have found.

Crucially, when it comes to predicting extreme weather events, new models still “underperform”, according to an [April study published in Science Advances](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec1433). Because their forecasts are based on past weather event

*[Content truncated...]*

---

## 2. Weather tracker: Europe braces for swing from Arctic chill to extreme heat - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/18/weather-tracker-europe-swing-arctic-chill-heat-temperatures-france-england-us](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/18/weather-tracker-europe-swing-arctic-chill-heat-temperatures-france-england-us)  
**Score:** 0.4402

### Summary

Significant snowfall is forecast across higher terrain in Wyoming, northern Colorado and north-east Utah early this week, with up to 46cm (18in) possible over the highest ground. Winds of up to 60mph (96km/h) are expected to whip up blizzards and create hazardous driving conditions in places.

Farther south-west, gusty winds and persistently low humidity have triggered red-flag warnings across several states, signalling a heightened risk of wildfires.

To the east, the sharp contrast between the cold air and warmer, more humid conditions across the central US is likely to fuel further thunderstorm development.

The Storm Prediction Center has warned of a 15% tornado probability for Monday across four central states, spanning a region home to almost 900,000 people. [...] Later this week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to build across western parts of the continent, drawing in hot air from north Africa. By Friday, temperatures in countries including France and England could climb 15C higher than a week earlier, reaching the mid- to high-30s celsius in Spain and Portugal. Overnight lows in these regions may exceed daytime highs recorded last week.

Dramatic temperature contrasts are also unfolding across the US this week. In late spring, such swings can be especially pronounced. In the north-west, where temperatures soared to about 30C last week, cold air is sweeping south from Canada and interacting with low pressure to produce the region’s second winter storm of the month. [...] Skip to navigationSkip to navigation

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Analysis

# Weather tracker: Europe braces for swing from Arctic chill to extreme heat

Brendan Wood (MetDesk)

Temperatures in France and England could rise by 15C, while hot air could to give way to snow in parts of US

After a prolonged spell of cool conditions across much of Europe, a dramatic swing in temperatures is expected in the coming days as warmer air surges north into western and central parts of the continent.

A large blocking high over the North Atlantic and slow-moving low pressure across southern Scandinavia dragged Arctic air southwards last week, sending temperatures 10-15C below the seasonal average for more than a week.

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[Analysis](/tone/analysis)

# Weather tracker: Europe braces for swing from Arctic chill to extreme heat

Brendan Wood (MetDesk)

Temperatures in France and England could rise by 15C, while hot air could to give way to snow in parts of US

After a prolonged spell of cool conditions across much of [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news), a dramatic swing in temperatures is expected in the coming days as warmer air surges north into western and central parts of the continent.

A large blocking high over the North Atlantic and slow-moving low pressure across southern Scandinavia dragged Arctic air southwards last week, sending temperatures 10-15C below the seasonal average for more than a week.

Overnight frosts affected gardeners and farmers, including in France, where grape growers lit fires to protect vineyards. Such widespread and persistent cold weather has become increasingly rare in recent decades as Europe continues to warm faster than any other continent as a result of the climate crisis.

The cool, unstable air also combined with strong May sunshine to trigger widespread thunderstorms. Between 11 and 16 May, about 750,000 lightning strikes were recorded across Europe and the surrounding areas.

Serbia’s national weather and hydrological service issued red warnings for strong winds, heavy rainfall and hail. Over the weekend, an extension of low pressure farther to the north-west of Europe cut off the northerly flow and winds turned more westerly.

Later this week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to build across western parts of the continent, drawing in hot air from north Africa. By Friday, temperatures in countries including France and England could climb 15C higher than a week earlier, reaching the mid- to high-30s celsius in Spain and Portugal. Overnight lows in these regions may exceed daytime highs recorded last week.

Dramatic temperature contrasts are also unfolding across the US this week. In late spring, such swings can be especially pronounced. In the north-west, where temperatures soared to about 30C last week, cold air is sweeping south from Canada and interacting with low pressure to produce the region’s second winter storm of the month.

Significant snowfall is forecast across higher terrain in Wyoming, northern Colorado and north-east Utah early this week, with up to 46cm (18in) possible over the highest ground. Winds of up to 60mph (96km/h) are expected to whip up blizzards and create hazardous driving conditions in places.

Farther south-west, gusty winds and persistently low humidity have triggered red-flag warnings across several states, signalling a heightened risk of wildfires.

To the east, the sharp contrast between the cold air and warmer, more humid conditions across the central US is likely to fuel further thunderstorm development.

The Storm Prediction Center has warned of a 15% tornado probability for Monday across four central states, spanning a region home to almost 900,000 people.

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## 3. US will see below-average 2026 hurricane season with up to 14 named storms, Noaa predicts - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/hurricane-season-2026-noaa](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/hurricane-season-2026-noaa)  
**Score:** 0.3618

### Summary

In the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, he said, forecasters predict a 70% chance of above normal activity, with 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes, five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and five to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.

The forecast came amid warnings from experts that the US was unprepared for hurricane season. The Trump administration has overseen staffing cuts which have forced the National Weather Service (NWS) to scale back satellites and balloon launches – key parts of the country’s data collection system.

Cuts have also left staff at the Noaa and the NWS “spread too thin”, John Morales, a meteorologist, said. This has degraded the country’s ability to forecast climate-fuelled extreme weather, he said. [...] “As a result, we head into the 2026 Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons with a diminished lack of confidence in accurately forecasting tropical threats,” said Morales.

Noaa’s flagship weather model, the American Global Forecast System, has shown a decline in skill, pushing it back to 2019 levels of confidence, he added. “Whether that’s the result of missing balloon weather releases, or the loss of seasoned atmospheric-modelling scientists is yet unknown,” he said.

Trump officials have also presided over big cuts to emergency management services and are  considering further shrinkage, which experts warn could further erode US capacity to handle hurricanes. [...] Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, with winds at 111mph or more. Three to six storms will also develop into category 1 hurricanes, with winds at 74mph or more, the forecasters expect.

Forecasters this year are contending with a confounding mix of climatic factors, including warm ocean temperatures, which can fuel more intense storms, and a developing El Niño, which can suppress development in the Atlantic Ocean but churn up more powerful storms in the Pacific.

“There’s a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Niño will be moderate to strong,” said Jacobs.

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# US will see below-average 2026 hurricane season with up to 14 named storms, Noaa predicts

Forecast came amid warning that US was unprepared for storms with staffing cuts under Trump administration

* [Sign up for the Breaking News US newsletter email](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/feb/17/sign-up-for-the-breaking-news-us-email-to-get-newsletter-alerts-direct-to-your-inbox?utm_medium=ACQUISITIONS_STANDFIRST&utm_campaign=BN22326&utm_content=signup&utm_term=standfirst&utm_source=GUARDIAN_WEB)

The [US](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news) will see a below-normal [hurricane](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hurricanes) season in 2026, federal government scientists said on Thursday, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds at 39mph or more.

The season has a “55% chance of being below normal, 35% chance of near normal and a 10% chance of above normal,” said Neil Jacobs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) administrator, at a press conference.

Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, with winds at 111mph or more. Three to six storms will also develop into category 1 hurricanes, with winds at 74mph or more, the forecasters expect.

Forecasters this year are contending with a confounding mix of climatic factors, including warm ocean temperatures, which can fuel more intense storms, and a developing El Niño, which can suppress development in the Atlantic Ocean but churn up more powerful storms in the Pacific.

“There’s a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Niño will be moderate to strong,” said Jacobs.

In the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, he said, forecasters predict a 70% chance of above normal activity, with 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes, five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and five to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.

The forecast came amid warnings from experts that the US was unprepared for hurricane season. The Trump administration has [overseen staffing cuts](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts) which have forced the National Weather Service (NWS) to scale back [satellites](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/28/noaa-cuts-hurricane-forecasting-climate) and [balloon launches](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/27/alaska-storm-emergency-response-trump-cuts) – key parts of the country’s data collection system.

Cuts have also left staff at the Noaa and the NWS “spread too thin”, John Morales, a meteorologist, said. This has degraded the country’s ability to forecast climate-fuelled extreme weather, he said.

“As a result, we head into the 2026 Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons with a diminished lack of confidence in accurately forecasting tropical threats,” said Morales.

Noaa’s flagship weather model, the American Global Forecast System, has shown a decline in skill, pushing it back to 2019 levels of confidence, he added. “Whether that’s the result of missing balloon weather releases, or the loss of seasoned atmospheric-modelling scientists is yet unknown,” he said.

Trump officials have also presided over big cuts to emergency management services and are  [considering further shrinkage](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/09/trump-council-fema-disaster-preparedness), which experts warn could further erode US capacity to handle hurricanes.

Predictions from private forecasting companies and scholars have indicated the US could see an average or slightly below-average level of hurricane activity. Colorado State University predicts about three-quarters of the typical storm activity in a season, with projected 13 named storms, six developing into hurricanes and three of those strengthening into category 3 or stronger storms. Meanwhile, Accuweather expects a near-or-below average season, with 11 to 16 named storms, up to seven of which could develop into hurricanes.

Research [shows](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/05/the-next-era-of-atlantic-hurricanes-could-be-far-more-destructive/) that as the climate crisis persists, the US could see more intense swings in hurricane activity, from quiet seasons to above-average ones, from year to year.

A “below-average” hurricane season could still pose serious dangers to Americans, said Ken Graham, director o

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## 4. Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Nino - AP News

**URL:** [https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-atlantic-pacific-el-nino-damage-risk-419de66615c5eb9b2974ef14b4d2f50b](https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-atlantic-pacific-el-nino-damage-risk-419de66615c5eb9b2974ef14b4d2f50b)  
**Score:** 0.2895

### Summary

Hurricane, typhoon and cyclone are the same weather event, with the different names being used in different parts of the world.

“We should expect a less active year than certainly what we’ve seen recently, and perhaps significantly so below average,” said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. “But again, it only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction in the mainland U.S. or even in Hawaii.”

## El Nino decapitates Atlantic storms

People bike past damaged homes and debris left by Hurricane Milton, on the sand-coated main road of southern Manasota Key, already cleared of feet of sand, in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

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 Copy [...] Colorado State University, which pioneered the science of hurricane seasonal forecasting in 1984, is predicting the lowest overall activity since 2015, which was the strongest El Nino in the last 75 years. And that forecast is likely to be revised to even lower numbers in June, said Colorado State’s hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.

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1 MIN READ [...] Hawaii is a small island chain in a big ocean that can be threatened. In 1992, an El Nino year when there were few Atlantic storms (though Miami was devastated by Hurricane Andrew ), Hawaii was hit by Hurricane Iniki.

A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong and high tide on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)

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Further west toward Asia and India, “your odds of any storm forming becoming a super typhoon go up significantly in El Nino,” Klotzbach said.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15 and the Atlantic season begins June 1 and both end November 30.

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## 5. ‘It’s no longer exceptional’: Karachi struggles under brutal new reality of extreme heat - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/17/its-no-longer-exceptional-karachi-struggles-under-brutal-new-reality-of-extreme-heat](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/17/its-no-longer-exceptional-karachi-struggles-under-brutal-new-reality-of-extreme-heat)  
**Score:** 0.2575

### Summary

The World Weather Attribution group has looked at the current extreme heat in Pakistan and India and found that “human-caused climate change approximately tripled the probability of an event like this happening, making it no longer exceptional in today’s climate. The same heat event would have been about 1C cooler in a pre-industrial climate.”

Yasir Darya, founder of the Climate Action Center, said Karachi’s humidity often makes temperatures below 40C feel significantly hotter. He also noted that unusually warm nights – once rare in the city – are now becoming more frequent, affecting sleep, health and overall living conditions. [...] Abdul Sattar, a fisherman with more than three decades of experience, recalled how one of his colleagues collapsed from heat exhaustion during the recent heatwave. “We gave him lemon water and rushed him to a doctor,” he said. “He regained consciousness after receiving intravenous fluids.”

The community still carries painful memories of Karachi’s catastrophic 2015 heatwave, when thousands of people died across the city, including several fishers from Ibrahim Hyderi. More recently, heat-related deaths reported during the summer of 2024 again highlighted Karachi’s vulnerability to extreme weather events. [...] India has also been experiencing intense heatwave conditions in recent weeks, particularly across Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of northern and central India, where temperatures in several cities have crossed 45C. Authorities in multiple states have issued heatwave alerts as extreme temperatures increase health risks, strain electricity supplies and disrupt daily life for millions. Climate experts say the recurring heatwaves across south Asia reflect a broader pattern of rising temperatures and increasingly severe weather linked to the climate crisis.

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# ‘It’s no longer exceptional’: Karachi struggles under brutal new reality of extreme heat

Experts say the unseasonably hot weather across south Asia shows the impact of the climate crisis

An intense and prolonged heatwave has been causing misery for millions across [Pakistan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/pakistan) and India.

In southern Pakistan throughout April and May, temperatures have risen far above seasonal norms. In Sindh, daytime temperatures have frequently crossed 44C to 46C, forcing residents indoors during peak afternoon hours and severely affecting outdoor labourers, transport workers and farming communities.

India has also been experiencing intense heatwave conditions in recent weeks, particularly across Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of northern and central [India](https://www.theguardian.com/world/india), where temperatures in several cities have crossed 45C. Authorities in multiple states have issued heatwave alerts as extreme temperatures increase health risks, strain electricity supplies and disrupt daily life for millions. Climate experts say the recurring heatwaves across south Asia reflect a broader pattern of rising temperatures and increasingly severe weather linked to the climate crisis.

In Pakistan, the city of Karachi – usually moderated by sea breezes from the Arabian Sea – has struggled to escape the extreme conditions. During the first half of May, temperatures in the city crossed 40C on multiple occasions. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Karachi recently recorded a maximum temperature of 44.1C, the city’s highest reading since 31 May 2018, when temperatures touched 46°C. Meteorologists have warned that hotter days may still be to come.

The impact has been particularly severe in Karachi’s coastal settlements, where prolonged electricity outages and water shortages have compounded the effects of extreme heat. In Ibrahim Hyderi, one of the city’s largest fishing communities, residents say survival is becoming increasingly difficult.

Abdul Sattar, a fisherman with more than three decades of experience, recalled how one of his colleagues collapsed from heat exhaustion during the recent heatwave. “We gave him lemon water and rushed him to a doctor,” he said. “He regained consciousness after receiving intravenous fluids.”

The community still carries painful memories of Karachi’s catastrophic 2015 heatwave, when thousands of people died across the city, including several fishers from Ibrahim Hyderi. More recently, [heat-related deaths reported during the summer of 2024](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/24/weather-tracker-pakistan-heatwave-continues-wild-changes-in-weather-patterns) again highlighted Karachi’s vulnerability to extreme weather events.

The strain is also becoming visible in local healthcare facilities. Dr Suresh Kumar, who heads the children’s ward at Ibrahim Hyderi government hospital, said the number of children visiting the outpatient department has risen sharply since the last week of April.

“On normal days, we would see around 50 to 60 children,” he said. “Now the number has crossed 200 daily.”

According to Kumar, most children are being treated for diarrhoea, stomach infections and dehydration – illnesses commonly linked to extreme heat and unsafe water conditions.

Climate experts warn that rising temperatures are no longer isolated incidents but part of a worsening long-term trend driven by climate change and rapid urbanisation.

The World Weather Attribution group [has looked at the](https://mcusercontent.com/854a9a3e09405d4ab19a4a9d5/files/3b4f8fb2-ac1f-4947-a432-940871c3f909/FINAL__WWA_Scientific_Report_South_Asia_Heatwave.pdf) current extreme heat in Pakistan and India and found that “human-caused climate change approximately tripled the probability of an event like this happening, making it no longer exceptional in today’s climate. The same heat event would have been about 1C cooler in a pre-industrial climate.”

Yasir Darya, founder of the Climate Action Center, said Karachi’s humidity often makes temperatures below 40C feel significantly hotter. He also noted that unusually warm nights – once rare in the city – are now becoming more frequent, affecting sleep, health and overall living conditions.

“The intensity of heat has sharply increased since 2024,” Darya said, warning that Karach

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