# Tavily Search Results: Dusty

**Query:** extreme weather events US and worldwide  
**Topic:** news  
**Results:** 5  
**Date:** 2026-05-11 14:08:57

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## 1. Weather tracker: US and Mexico brace for heatwave as deadly floods hit South Africa - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/11/weather-tracker-us-mexico-heatwave-floods-south-africa](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/11/weather-tracker-us-mexico-heatwave-floods-south-africa)  
**Score:** 0.4084

### Summary

The US National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for parts of California and Arizona, with extreme heat warnings in force on Monday and Tuesday in places such as Palm Springs, where temperatures could reach 40-43C (104-110F). More broadly, temperatures are expected to climb into the high 30s celsius before the heat shifts eastwards towards the midwest later this week. [...] Heavy rainfall is also expected to coincide with strong, potentially damaging winds. Large areas of southern South Africa, including Western and Eastern Cape, are forecast to experience north-westerly to westerly gusts exceeding 60mph (97km/h) early this week, with even stronger gusts likely over higher ground, particularly across the Cape Fold Mountains. [...] Meanwhile, severe weather is likely to continue across parts of South Africa, with disruptive rain and damaging winds raising the risk of flooding. Rain moved in from the Atlantic across the Western and Northern Cape on Sunday morning, bringing persistent downpours over much of the weekend. Between Monday and Wednesday, more than 200mm of rain could fall across parts of Western Cape, while mountainous regions could record totals approaching 300mm.

The South African Weather Service has issued several warnings, highlighting the potential for flash flooding, mudslides, rockfalls and damage to infrastructure and property.

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# Weather tracker: US and Mexico brace for heatwave as deadly floods hit South Africa

Alice Nightingale-Smith

Temperatures soar in California and Arizona, while deluge continues across Western and Northern Cape

Heat is expected to intensify across western parts of the US and [Mexico](https://www.theguardian.com/world/mexico) this week as a ridge of high pressure pushes temperatures well above the seasonal norm. Daytime highs are forecast to reach 10-15C above average in some areas.

The US National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for parts of [California](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/california) and Arizona, with extreme heat warnings in force on Monday and Tuesday in places such as Palm Springs, where temperatures could reach 40-43C (104-110F). More broadly, temperatures are expected to climb into the high 30s celsius before the heat shifts eastwards towards the midwest later this week.

Meanwhile, severe weather is likely to continue across parts of [South Africa](https://www.theguardian.com/world/southafrica), with disruptive rain and damaging winds raising the risk of flooding. Rain moved in from the Atlantic across the Western and Northern Cape on Sunday morning, bringing persistent downpours over much of the weekend. Between Monday and Wednesday, more than 200mm of rain could fall across parts of Western Cape, while mountainous regions could record totals approaching 300mm.

The South African Weather Service has issued several warnings, highlighting the potential for flash flooding, mudslides, rockfalls and damage to infrastructure and property.

Heavy rainfall is also expected to coincide with strong, potentially damaging winds. Large areas of southern South Africa, including Western and Eastern Cape, are forecast to experience north-westerly to westerly gusts exceeding 60mph (97km/h) early this week, with even stronger gusts likely over higher ground, particularly across the Cape Fold Mountains.

The latest warnings come shortly after heavy rain triggered flooding, road closures and infrastructure damage across the Western and Eastern Cape on 5-7 May. More than 300mm of rain fell in some areas, forcing evacuations in Gamtoos Valley after the Kouga dam exceeded capacity. Power outages and at least 45 road closures left many communities isolated. One person died in Knysna, Western Cape, while more than 2,000 people were evacuated to emergency shelters.

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## 2. What to know about the predictions for a potentially record-breaking El Nino - AP News

**URL:** [https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-climate-hurricane-heat-drought-rain-d9b3de8acc849198fbb1097fbb0eb4f6](https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-climate-hurricane-heat-drought-rain-d9b3de8acc849198fbb1097fbb0eb4f6)  
**Score:** 0.3404

### Summary

Seasonal models are predicting an El Nino climate pattern that could be the strongest on record, bringing with it more extreme weather.

“I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before,” WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Jeff Berardelli, in Tampa, Florida, said Friday.

An El Nino event is expected to develop from the middle of this year, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization. While the models indicate that this may be a strong event, the WMO cautioned that the models also have a harder time making accurate forecasts in the spring.

## What El Nino is [...] Share

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El Nino has global impacts. Across the United States, it looks like this summer will be hotter than normal, with significant heat waves, Berardelli said. While the specifics are hard to pinpoint this far out, Berardelli is also expecting to see more frequent daily thunderstorms in the Southwest U.S.

Forest degradation, driven by wildfires, logging and drought, affects about 40% of the Amazon. This could be exacerbated in 2026 with a strong El Nino. [...] TOP STORIES

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## 3. ‘Closing the chapter’ on Fema: Trump panel seeks to weaken disaster response amid climate crisis - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/09/trump-council-fema-disaster-preparedness](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/09/trump-council-fema-disaster-preparedness)  
**Score:** 0.2814

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# ‘Closing the chapter’ on Fema: Trump panel seeks to weaken disaster response amid climate crisis

Council’s plan will leave Federal Emergency Management Agency ill-equipped to respond to extreme weather events, experts say

Sweeping changes may be in store at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), the nation’s frontline emergency response coordinator, that experts warned could further erode US capacity to handle disasters as the risks of extreme weather fueled by the climate crisis continue to rise. [...] “A lot of the presentation was focused on post-disaster programmatic implementation versus the big question – how do we make disasters cost less in this country – especially in an era when we know that the hazards themselves are getting worse?”

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## Most viewed [...] But their report largely failed to address how these reforms would meet the increasing needs of an emergency management system that is already struggling to keep pace with extreme weather events fueled by the climate crisis.

“The Fema review council completely missed the moment we are in right now,” said Shana Udvardy, senior climate resilience policy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, adding that the administration had already “done its best to break Fema down”.

Emergency management has long been complicated, with vaguely defined areas of responsibility for preparation and recovery sprawled across multiple levels of government and a matrix of non-profits, businesses and individuals.

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# ‘Closing the chapter’ on Fema: Trump panel seeks to weaken disaster response amid climate crisis

Council’s plan will leave Federal Emergency Management Agency ill-equipped to respond to extreme weather events, experts say

Sweeping changes may be in store at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), the nation’s frontline emergency response coordinator, that experts warned could further erode US capacity to handle disasters as the risks of [extreme weather](https://www.theguardian.com/world/extreme-weather) fueled by the [climate crisis](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-crisis) continue to rise.

Fears about a fundamental overhaul of Fema’s form and function have been brewing since [Donald Trump](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump) returned to the White House. After castigating the agency over claims that it was too expensive and “doesn’t get the job done”, Trump set to gutting Fema as an early priority for his second term.

A [long-awaited proposal on the agency’s future](https://www.dhs.gov/publication/fema-review-council-final-meeting-documentation), released this week by a council appointed by Trump, doubled down on the president’s calls to claw back federal spending on disasters and push responsibility onto states and local governments.

“It is time to close the chapter on Fema,” the 12-member “Fema Review Council” wrote in its final report, which was quickly ushered to the president’s desk after a public presentation on Thursday. The recommendations, they added, were guided by one key doctrine: “Disaster response should be locally executed, state or tribally managed, and federally supported.”

Co-headed by Markwayne Mullin, the homeland security secretary and [Pete Hegseth](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/pete-hegseth), the defense secretary, the committee framed their ideas as essential upgrades that will tighten Fema’s sprawling mission and add efficiency and transparency to a chaotic and challenging recovery process.

But their report largely failed to address how these reforms would meet the increasing needs of an emergency management system that is already struggling to keep pace with extreme weather events fueled by the climate crisis.

“The Fema review council completely missed the moment we are in right now,” said Shana Udvardy, senior climate resilience policy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, adding that the administration had already “done its best to break Fema down”.

Emergency management has long been complicated, with vaguely defined areas of responsibility for preparation and recovery sprawled across multiple levels of government and a matrix of non-profits, businesses and individuals.

But the sharp rise in extreme events has added more pressure to a system already pushed to the brink. Costs have quickly climbed, while affected communities are left to grapple with long, painful recoveries.

“I think it is universally agreed that anything we can do to make our programs more efficient and cost-effective is a good thing,” said Dr Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. But, he added, small governments are far from equipped to pick up the slack. Many don’t even have dedicated emergency management departments. “They rely a lot on Fema, and on federal expertise to help them,” Rumbach said. “I think that this is going to be really a challenging proposition for them.”

## A new funding model

The committee’s report contained 150 recommended actions, Kevin Guthrie, a member of the committee and the executive director of the Florida division of emergency management, said during Thursday’s presentation. All served to cast Fema into “more of a supporting role”, he added.

The transformed agency would require states to meet higher thresholds for the disaster declarations that unlock federal support, would leave evacuation and emergency shelter at the local level and would severely cap payouts to affected homeowners and renters.

Guthrie said declarations should only be requested during events that have truly “broken the back of local and state government” and that administrative costs were chewing through a growing share of the assistance that Fema provides.

They also proposed a new funding model for Fema’s public assistance program, which supports local infrastructure repair, debris removal and other costs of recovery, opting in

*[Content truncated...]*

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## 4. Climate models struggling to capture human impact on storm tracks - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/may/06/climate-models-struggling-to-capture-human-impact-on-storm-tracks](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/may/06/climate-models-struggling-to-capture-human-impact-on-storm-tracks)  
**Score:** 0.1872

### Summary

The study shows that improving the ability to separate out natural variation in wind patterns from the human-driven climate crisis is central to improving regional rainfall forecasts and providing advance warning of extreme events, helping to prevent tragedies such as in Valencia from happening again.

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# Climate models struggling to capture human impact on storm tracks

Difficulty means severe storms arrive with little warning of where or when exactly they will hit, with sometimes deadly consequences

In October 2024 eastern Spain was hit by a deadly storm when more than a year’s worth of rain fell on the streets of Valencia. The resulting floods claimed more than 230 lives. Weather forecasts predicted that a major storm was on the way, but failed to pinpoint exactly where and when heavy rainfall would land. [...] Now a study has shown that one of the reasons rainfall is so hard to predict is because climate models are underestimating the shifts in large-scale wind patterns, such as the jet stream, that control storm tracks and rainfall distribution.

Lei Gu, from the University of Oxford, and colleagues analysed winter rainfall patterns across the northern hemisphere from 1950 to 2022 and studied the influence of a warmer atmosphere and changing circulation patterns.

Their findings, published in the journal Nature, show that climate models are accurately capturing the impact of a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture, but struggling to represent the shift in atmospheric circulation patterns caused by human emissions, which ultimately determine where the rain falls.

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# Climate models struggling to capture human impact on storm tracks

Difficulty means severe storms arrive with little warning of where or when exactly they will hit, with sometimes deadly consequences

In October 2024 eastern [Spain](https://www.theguardian.com/world/spain) was hit by a deadly storm when more than a year’s worth of rain fell on the streets of Valencia. The resulting floods claimed more than 230 lives. Weather forecasts predicted that a major storm was on the way, but failed to pinpoint exactly where and when heavy rainfall would land.

Now a [study has shown](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10474-y) that one of the reasons rainfall is so hard to predict is because climate models are underestimating the shifts in large-scale wind patterns, such as the jet stream, that control storm tracks and rainfall distribution.

Lei Gu, from the University of Oxford, and colleagues analysed winter rainfall patterns across the northern hemisphere from 1950 to 2022 and studied the influence of a warmer atmosphere and changing circulation patterns.

Their findings, published in the journal Nature, show that climate models are accurately capturing the impact of a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture, but struggling to represent the shift in atmospheric circulation patterns caused by human emissions, which ultimately determine where the rain falls.

The study shows that improving the ability to separate out natural variation in wind patterns from the human-driven climate crisis is central to improving regional rainfall forecasts and providing advance warning of extreme events, helping to prevent tragedies such as in Valencia from happening again.

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## 5. Lasers in the sky: hi-tech missions track record snowpack loss in US west - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/11/critically-low-snowpack-west](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/11/critically-low-snowpack-west)  
**Score:** 0.1563

### Summary

“In March the spigot shut off and it shut off across the entire western US,” Painter says. “Loss of snowpack like we’ve never seen. It’s not in the record at all. So this is unprecedented.”

The numbers back him up: the statewide snowpack in California stood at a mere 18% of average on 1 April and has declined ever since.

## The long, dry summer ahead

Standing by a rushing stream outside Reno, Nevada, Tom Albright, the state’s deputy state climatologist, says spring runoff from snowmelt in the mountains is two months ahead of schedule. “We wish we could tell it to stay put a little longer,” Albright says. [...] ## A record-breaking ’spigot shut off’

The national drought picture is increasingly grim. According to the latest US Drought Monitor, more than 60% of the lower 48 states are now gripped by drought. It’s the most widespread spring dry spell since the monitor began in 2000. While the south-east is now battling “summer-sized” wildfires in Georgia and Florida, the west is facing a different kind of crisis: a snow drought-fueled water shortage.

A record-warm winter followed by a blistering March heatwave, both fuelled by heat-trapping pollution, has decimated the western snowpack. According to Climate Central, the total water stored in the western snowpack this winter hit its lowest level on record right when it should have been hitting its annual peak. [...] The danger of an early melt is twofold. First, once that snow is gone, the landscape begins to dry out months ahead of schedule which can fuel wildfires. Second, major reservoirs on the Colorado River that are already critically low, will not be replenished due to the lack of snowpack. “What happens when we don’t have the snowpack is we lose what water there was early and then we’re left with this really long dry season,” Albright says. When asked what concerns him most about the coming months, his answer is immediate: “Fire. Particularly because we have such a broad area that’s affected.”

For decades, the water systems of the west were built on the assumption that the snow would stay in the mountains until the heat of mid-summer. The climate crisis is rewriting that playbook.

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# Lasers in the sky: hi-tech missions track record snowpack loss in US west

Data from missions showing critically low snowpack on mountains across the west raises alarm among experts

High above the jagged peaks of California’s Sierra Nevada, the view from the cockpit is breathtaking. At first glance, the mountains appear draped in a pristine white blanket. But as the flight crew gears up for a high-stakes mission, the sensors onboard this specialized aircraft prove that looks can be deceiving.

“This is a distinct dry year,” says Tom Painter, CEO of Airborne [Snow](https://www.theguardian.com/world/snow) Observatories.

Painter, who developed this technology at Nasa, isn’t relying on a visual inspection. His plane uses Lidar, or rapid pulses of laser light, to calculate snow depth with surgical precision. “The Lidar sprays out about 800,000 pulses per second,” he explains. The result is a 3D map of snow depth accurate to within 3cm. The technology also helps determine how much water is stored in the snowpack.

In the US west, where mountain ranges act as “frozen reservoirs”, state water managers rely on this data as a survival guide. It helps them plan for exactly how much water will eventually reach the faucets of millions of people and the critical farm fields that feed the nation.

This year, the data is sounding an alarm.

## **A** **record-****breaking** **’spigot** **shut** **off****’**

The national drought picture is increasingly grim. According to the latest US [Drought](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/drought) Monitor, more than 60% of the lower 48 states are now gripped by drought. It’s the most widespread spring dry spell since the monitor began in 2000. While the south-east is now battling “summer-sized” wildfires in Georgia and Florida, the west is facing a different kind of crisis: a snow drought-fueled water shortage.

A record-warm winter followed by a blistering March heatwave, both fuelled by heat-trapping pollution, has decimated the western snowpack. According to Climate Central, the total water stored in the western snowpack this winter hit its lowest level on record right when it should have been hitting its annual peak.

“In March the spigot shut off and it shut off across the entire western US,” Painter says. “Loss of snowpack like we’ve never seen. It’s not in the record at all. So this is unprecedented.”

The numbers back him up: the statewide snowpack in California stood at a mere 18% of average on 1 April and has declined ever since.

## **The** **long,** **dry** **summer** **ahead**

Standing by a rushing stream outside Reno, Nevada, Tom Albright, the state’s deputy state climatologist, says spring runoff from snowmelt in the mountains is two months ahead of schedule. “We wish we could tell it to stay put a little longer,” Albright says.

The danger of an early melt is twofold. First, once that snow is gone, the landscape begins to dry out months ahead of schedule which can fuel wildfires. Second, major reservoirs on the Colorado River that are already critically low, will not be replenished due to the lack of snowpack. “What happens when we don’t have the snowpack is we lose what water there was early and then we’re left with this really long dry season,” Albright says. When asked what concerns him most about the coming months, his answer is immediate: “Fire. Particularly because we have such a broad area that’s affected.”

For decades, the water systems of the west were built on the assumption that the snow would stay in the mountains until the heat of mid-summer. The climate crisis is rewriting that playbook.

While this year’s drought is anomalous when looking at the historical record, experts warn it is a preview of the coming decades.

“As we look forward this year will become less and less unusual and may become not unusual at all at some point in the future,” Albright warns.

Explore more on these topics

* [West Coast](/us-news/west-coast)
* [Climate crisis](/environment/climate-crisis)
* [Drought](/environment/drought)
* [Snow](/world/snow)
* [Water](/environment/water)
* [news](/tone/news)

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