# Tavily Search Results: Dusty

**Query:** extreme weather events US and worldwide  
**Topic:** news  
**Results:** 5  
**Date:** 2026-04-28 17:09:10

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## 1. What is a ‘super El Niño’ and what might it mean for the global climate? - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/23/down-to-earth-super-el-nino-extreme-weather](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/23/down-to-earth-super-el-nino-extreme-weather)  
**Score:** 0.9831

### Summary

The stronger it is, the more likely it will supercharge weather events around the world. A super El Niño in 2015 brought severe drought in Ethiopia, water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records after unleashing a vicious hurricane season in the central-north Pacific, according to an analysis by US federal scientists.

There’s still some uncertainty about whether conditions will coalesce to create severe shifts this year. Climate scientists are also quick to point out that each event is unique and there’s considerable variability in intensity and outcomes. But experts said the forecasts can help communities around the world to prepare for extreme weather in the months ahead – an essential tool in a warming world. [...] It’s still too early to get a definitive picture, but there are signs that a so-called super El Niño could develop this year, supercharging extreme weather events around the world. Some forecasts are suggesting it could become one of the strongest ever recorded.

Alongside heating from the human-caused climate crisis, this could put the world on track to once again temporarily breach the 1.5C average temperature rise over preindustrial levels – the critical climate threshold that experts have warned comes with a host of catastrophic consequences. Some models show that temperature anomalies could even push past that point next year and go beyond a 2C increase for the first time in recorded history. [...] Each El Niño event is unique, with impacts that are highly variable and change considerably depending on region and season. But the cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, around southern and central Africa, in India and in parts of South America, including in the Amazon rainforest. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia. It also flips hurricane activity, suppressing development in the Atlantic Ocean while increasing the likelihood that powerful tropical storms will churn out of the Pacific.

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# What is a ‘super El Niño’ and what might it mean for the global climate?

In this week’s newsletter: Experts are predicting a stronger version of the weather pattern this year, which could supercharge extreme events and see temperature rises breach 1.5C

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Scientists and officials are keeping a close eye on conditions brewing in the Pacific Ocean that could spike temperatures and smash global heat records in the year ahead.

It’s still too early to get a definitive picture, but there are signs that a so-called super El Niño could develop this year, supercharging extreme weather events around the world. Some forecasts are suggesting it could become one of the strongest ever recorded.

Alongside heating from the human-caused climate crisis, this could put the world on track to once again temporarily breach the 1.5C average temperature rise over preindustrial levels – the critical climate threshold that experts have warned comes with a host of catastrophic consequences. Some models show that temperature anomalies could even push past that point next year and go beyond a 2C increase for the first time in recorded history.

What would a super El Niño look like and what would it mean for the global climate? I’ll explain, after this week’s most important reads.

## **Essential reads**

* **[Stern warning: one man’s mission to clear the rotting boats poisoning Cornwall’s creeks](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/22/mission-clear-rotting-boats-poisoning-cornwall-creeks-fibreglass-pollution)**
* **[On the trail with the hunters who believe shooting big game can save Africa’s wildlife](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/21/hunters-who-believe-shooting-big-game-can-save-africa-wildlife)**
* **[Who’d have thought a fossil-fuel shill like Trump would be the one to spark a green revolution? | George Monbiot](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/18/fossil-fuel-trump-green-revolution-us-iran-renewable-energy)**

## **In focus**

Temporary breaches of that 1.5C mark aren’t on the same level of concern as longer-term temperature increases, but they are stepping stones on a perilous path.

Marc Alessi, a fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists said this week [in an analysis](https://blog.ucs.org/marc-alessi/terrible-team-super-el-nino-and-climate-change-could-lead-to-record-breaking-global-temperatures/): “While the majority of models predict global monthly temperature anomalies will remain below 2C, the fact that there’s a nonzero chance of +2C happening is shocking,” adding that such an increase would push the world closer to dangerous tipping points.

Before we go deeper into what the models are showing, a quick refresher: El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, that typically occurs every two to seven years and tends to last between nine and 12 months. During El Niño years, the winds that would push warm waters to the west soften or shift direction, enabling the surface waters in that part of the Pacific to warm.

El Niño is one of three states scientists observe, and each helps shape important weather predictions for the year that follows. La Niña, conversely, happens when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Niño nor La Niña are present and surface temperatures are about average. These events generally develop between April and June but don’t reach full strength until later in the year, between October and the following February.

Warming and cooling at sea surface during El Niño and La Niña can range from 1C to 3C, and have enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat and climate disasters in different regions, depending on which direction they go.

Right now, conditions are shifting out of La Niña and into a neutral pattern, according to the latest outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center. But models are showing a rapid transition toward El Niño. A [forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/) at Columbia University, published o

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## 2. Heatwaves, floods and wildfires pose rising threat to democracy, report finds - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/22/climate-change-extreme-weather-heatwaves-floods-wildfires-threat-democracy-elections](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/22/climate-change-extreme-weather-heatwaves-floods-wildfires-threat-democracy-elections)  
**Score:** 0.6619

### Summary

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## Most viewed [...] The findings, from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an intergovernmental organisation that aims to support democracy around the world, is the first global analysis of how natural hazards are affecting elections.

In 2024, those hazards disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal, either by damaging infrastructure, displacing voters or precipitating last-minute changes to electoral processes.

The report’s co-author, Sarah Birch, a professor of politics at King’s College London, said elections should be timed to avoid predictable climate threats, noting that even the US was still intent on staging elections in November, during its hurricane season. [...] To help mitigate the impact of extreme climate events, the report advocates for those organising elections to work closely with meteorological experts, environmental protection bodies, and disaster relief and humanitarian agencies.

Election staff in Peru, for instance, have received training in disaster risk management to help them respond to disruptions on voting day. Next year, the Alberta provincial legislature in Canada will move its traditional election date in May to October to avoid the wildfire season.

Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Australia’s Griffith University, said: “As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning is more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections.”

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# Heatwaves, floods and wildfires pose rising threat to democracy, report finds

Research shows natural hazards linked to climate crisis disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries in 2024

Democracy is under mounting threat from the climate crisis, with new analysis documenting how elections are increasingly shaped not only by political forces but also by floods, wildfires and extreme weather.

At least 94 elections and referendums across 52 countries have been disrupted by climate-related impacts over the last two decades, researchers found.

As risks intensify, the pressure on already fragile democratic systems – particularly in [Africa](https://www.theguardian.com/world/africa) and Asia – is forecast to grow.

[The findings](https://www.idea.int/news-media/multimedia-reports/impact-natural-hazards-elections), from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an intergovernmental organisation that aims to support democracy around the world, is the first global analysis of how natural hazards are affecting elections.

In 2024, those hazards disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal, either by damaging infrastructure, displacing voters or precipitating last-minute changes to electoral processes.

The report’s co-author, Sarah Birch, a professor of politics at King’s College London, said elections should be timed to avoid predictable climate threats, noting that even the US was still intent on staging elections in November, during its [hurricane season](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/02/fema-us-hurricane-season).

“Elections should be held when disasters are least likely,” she said. “In some cases, electoral management bodies will also need to consider alterations to election timelines to reduce the likelihood of disruption by short-lived disasters.”

The findings highlight more than 100 climate-related crises, including Mozambique’s 2019 election, when [Cyclone Idai submerged thousands of houses, schools, power lines and roads](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/19/cyclone-idai-worst-weather-disaster-to-hit-southern-hemisphere-mozambique-malawi) and people were forced to move to safer locations, events that the report states “affected the results of the presidential election and the distribution of legislative and provincial seats”.

Another example is the flooding that took place during Senegal’s parliamentary election in November 2024, when firefighters were required to help bring election observers to polling stations.

Heatwaves are another recurring problem, with at least 10 elections since 2022 affected by very hot weather. Among them was the [general election in the Philippines](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/12/philippines-election-2025-midterms-voting-results-marcos-duterte) last year, when intense heat meant that some vote-counting machines overheated on election day and ejected previously accepted ballots.

Heat is a particular threat to elections in the world’s megacities, which have populations of more than 10 million. The Nigerian city of Lagos now has the most days a year - 89 - where [local temperatures are significantly above pre-climate change levels](https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index).

To help mitigate the impact of extreme climate events, the report advocates for those organising elections to work closely with meteorological experts, environmental protection bodies, and disaster relief and humanitarian agencies.

Election staff in Peru, for instance, have received training in disaster risk management to help them respond to disruptions on voting day. Next year, the Alberta provincial legislature in Canada will move its traditional election date in May to October to avoid the [wildfire season](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/11/canada-wildfire-season).

Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Australia’s Griffith University, said: “As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning is more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections.”

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* [South and cen

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## 3. Wildfires in Florida after dry winter and spring lead to drought across US - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/apr/24/wildfires-in-florida-after-dry-winter-and-spring-lead-to-drought-across-us](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/apr/24/wildfires-in-florida-after-dry-winter-and-spring-lead-to-drought-across-us)  
**Score:** 0.5983

### Summary

In parts of India, a heatwave is anticipated over the coming days as high pressure sits over the north of the country. April to June are considered summer months in northern India, before the onset of monsoon season from July, so while daytime temperatures of about 40C are not uncommon for some areas, the mercury is set to rise closer to 45C over the weekend and the start of next week. States such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are all expected to have temperatures above 40C for multiple days, with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing a heatwave alert for the regions. Some forecasts extend the extreme heat into the first week of May, which would raise health concerns for millions of people.

Explore more on these topics [...] Much of the US is battling a widespread drought after a very dry winter and start to spring. South-eastern areas, in particular the states of Florida and Georgia, are experiencing some of the worst of this prolonged bout of dry weather, with calls for the risk to be labelled a level 4 “exceptional” drought in the region, the most severe category. In recent days, strong winds and low humidity conditions have brought an increased fire risk. These ingredients combined with such unusually dry ground have led to multiple large wildfires, particularly across Florida, a state known for its wetlands and everglades. [...] Explore more on these topics

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# Wildfires in Florida after dry winter and spring lead to drought across US

One blaze broke out north-west of Fort Lauderdale in Florida, a state known for its wetlands and everglades

Much of the US is battling a widespread drought after a very dry winter and start to spring. South-eastern areas, in particular the states of Florida and [Georgia](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/state-of-georgia), are experiencing some of the worst of this prolonged bout of dry weather, with calls for the risk to be labelled a level 4 “exceptional” drought in the region, the most severe category. In recent days, strong winds and low humidity conditions have brought an increased fire risk. These ingredients combined with such unusually dry ground have led to multiple large wildfires, particularly across Florida, a state known for its wetlands and everglades.

A fire broke out early on Tuesday morning in Broward County, [Florida](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/florida), just north-west of Fort Lauderdale, scorching an area of more than 9,200 acres as of Thursday afternoon. The National Guard helped Broward Sherriff Fire Rescue tackle the blaze, which has since been brought to 50% containment. Residents nearby and farther west have been warned of reduced air quality as a result of travelling smoke. Fires have been breaking out elsewhere, with multiple active blazes across northern Florida, Georgia and into Alabama. Abnormally dry weather is set to continue over the next few weeks before the arrival of the rainy season, usually around June, with the drought and fire risk set to last.

In parts of [India](https://www.theguardian.com/world/india), a heatwave is anticipated over the coming days as high pressure sits over the north of the country. April to June are considered summer months in northern India, before the onset of monsoon season from July, so while daytime temperatures of about 40C are not uncommon for some areas, the mercury is set to rise closer to 45C over the weekend and the start of next week. States such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are all expected to have temperatures above 40C for multiple days, with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing a heatwave alert for the regions. Some forecasts extend the extreme heat into the first week of May, which would raise health concerns for millions of people.

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## 4. World food systems ‘pushed to the brink’ by extreme heat, UN warns - The Guardian

**URL:** [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/22/world-food-systems-extreme-heat-farming-un-report](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/22/world-food-systems-extreme-heat-farming-un-report)  
**Score:** 0.5370

### Summary

Morgan Ody, a small-scale farmer and the general coordinator of La Via Campesina, a global organisation of food and land workers and small farmers, said the lives of working people were increasingly at risk. “Farmers, agricultural workers and small-scale fisherfolk – especially women and elderly people among them – whose livelihoods depend on daily work in fields, rivers and oceans, are highly vulnerable to extreme heat, which also threatens their health and lives. These extreme weather events are driven in large part by industrial monocultures and livestock systems that emit large amounts of greenhouse gases,” she said. [...] Yields begin to decline at temperatures above 30C for most agricultural crops, with damage including weakened cell walls and the production of toxins. The yields of maize in some areas have declined by about 10%. Wheat has fallen by nearly as much, and is projected to decline further as temperatures rise to more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels.

Ocean heatwaves are also killing fish, as heat reduces the level of dissolved oxygen in the water, leading to mass decline in populations.

Much more could be done to warn farmers, as heatwaves are often predictable, according to the report published on Wednesday. Weather forecasts and mobile phone communications could be used to alert farmers when extreme weather is expected. [...] Ody called for compensation for such workers for the losses they experience from extreme weather, debt relief and public investment in adaptive measures, as well as rules on worker safety that would limit how long workers in fields and on boats could be exposed to high temperatures and force employers to provide shade, rest and water. In the longer term, she called for the replacement of intensive farming with more nature-friendly methods.

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# World food systems ‘pushed to the brink’ by extreme heat, UN warns

Severe heatwaves in commonly hot regions could leave farmers unable to work outside, with livestock mortality rates expected to rise

Extreme heat is threatening the world’s food systems, with farmers [unable to work outside](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2025/oct/09/extreme-heat-deaths-autopsy), livestock experiencing stress and crop yields falling, putting the livelihoods of more than a billion people in peril, [the UN has warned](https://digital-media.fao.org/Detail/2A6XC5L6RULY).

Experts said food supply in some areas was being “pushed to the brink” by increasingly common and severe [heatwaves](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/08/extreme-weather-heatwaves-breaching-human-survival-limits-study-finds), on land and at sea, in a [major report](https://doi.org/10.4060/cd9394en) written jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Farmers could find it [impossible to work safely](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/11/farm-workers-night-heat) for as many as 250 days of the year – more than two-thirds of the time – in already hot regions including much of India and south Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa and swathes of Central and South America.

Livestock are already experiencing an increase in mortality rates, as heat stress begins for common species at about 25C. Extreme heat [reduces yields from dairy cows](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/03/heatwaves-global-dairy-decline-milk-production-farming-environment) and cuts the fat and protein content of milk. Pigs and chickens are unable to sweat and, as temperatures rise, face digestive tract breakdowns, organ failure and cardiovascular shock.

Yields begin to [decline](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/01/heat-resistant-crops-hotter-night-temperatures-climate) at temperatures above 30C for most agricultural crops, with damage including weakened cell walls and the production of toxins. The yields of maize in some areas have declined by about 10%. Wheat has fallen by nearly as much, and is projected to decline further as temperatures rise to more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels.

Ocean heatwaves are also killing fish, as heat reduces the level of dissolved oxygen in the water, leading to mass decline in populations.

Much more could be done to warn farmers, as heatwaves are often predictable, according to the report published on Wednesday. Weather forecasts and mobile phone communications could be used to alert farmers when extreme weather is expected.

Richard Waite, the director of agriculture initiatives at the World Resources Institute thinktank, who was not involved in the report, said it was crucial to start adapting to rising temperatures now, by giving farmers the tools, knowhow and early warnings to help them anticipate and protect against extreme weather.

“Without adaptation, extreme heat will cut crop and livestock yields, forcing more land into agriculture to maintain food production. That would drive even higher emissions from land use change, which in turn would make climate impacts on agriculture even worse,” he said. “What’s needed is the opposite: scaling solutions that help farmers maintain and sustainably increase productivity, even in a changing climate, so we can break that vicious cycle rather than reinforce it.”

Morgan Ody, a small-scale farmer and the general coordinator of La Via Campesina, a global organisation of food and land workers and small farmers, said the lives of working people were increasingly at risk. “Farmers, agricultural workers and small-scale fisherfolk – especially women and elderly people among them – whose livelihoods depend on daily work in fields, rivers and oceans, are highly vulnerable to extreme heat, which also threatens their health and lives. These extreme weather events are driven in large part by industrial monocultures and livestock systems that emit large amounts of greenhouse gases,” she said.

Ody called for compensation for such workers for the losses they experience from extreme weather, debt relief and public investment in adaptive measures, as well as rules on worker safety that would limit how long workers in fields and on boats could be exposed to high temperatures and force employers 

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## 5. New study finds 'alarming' high flood risk for 17 million Americans on Atlantic and Gulf coasts - AP News

**URL:** [https://apnews.com/article/flood-climate-change-risk-883b15d4d6ff11ee66ae9dd46ef43bce](https://apnews.com/article/flood-climate-change-risk-883b15d4d6ff11ee66ae9dd46ef43bce)  
**Score:** 0.1128

### Summary

The authors looked at all sizes of flooding and examined separately what FEMA considers the most extreme, which are the top 1% of events. The study found 4.3 million people along the coasts to be at the highest level of risk of extreme flooding, but 20.5 million to be at high risk, the second highest level.

They found a lot of vulnerability, highlighting eight different cities from Houston, which flooded in 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, to New York, which was inundated in 2012’s Superstorm Sandy.

Related Stories

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4 MIN READ

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1 MIN READ [...] SETH BORENSTEIN

Borenstein is an Associated Press science writer, covering climate change, disasters, physics and other science topics. He is based in Washington, D.C.

twitter   mailto [...] “Just look at the magnitude,” Shao said. “Those numbers are shocking, are alarming.”

## The elderly and poor are most at risk

“When the next big storm hits New York City, when the next Hurricane Katrina -like hurricane makes landfall in New Orleans, people will get hurt, especially those socially vulnerable populations,” Shao said referring to the poor, the elderly, children and the uneducated.

Shao and outside experts said the numbers stunned them even though they were familiar with the worsening effects of climate change.

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  + [Mike Vrabel says he's had difficult conversations after publication of photos with NFL reporter](https://apnews.com/article/mike-vrabel-dianna-russini-patriots-nfl-f14287cb770c548420e33844a9a2c9f9)
  + [Victor Wembanyama has a concussion after falling face-first to court in loss to Blazers](https://apnews.com/article/spurs-victor-wembanyama-injury-playoffs-trail-blazers-a85e3c12a201e603eb8d521c42b1227b)
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